Whereas it’s too early within the season to have reached peak ‘squeaky bum time’, many Arsenal supporters are little question actually or figuratively shifting of their seats.
Sunday’s was their third successive Premier League match with out a win, and what appeared a commanding seven-point lead earlier than the weekend has been decreased to 4. Such is the fickle nature of contemporary soccer.
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However what does historical past inform us about Arsenal’s title probabilities from what continues to be an enviable place?
Will Arsenal keep away from repeat of slip-ups?
The Gunners have been Premier League leaders at this stage of a season on three earlier events however solely went on to raise the title as soon as – the Invincibles season of 2003-04, once they completed unbeaten.
That they had a two-point lead after 23 matches then. That was additionally the case in 2022-23, with Mikel Arteta’s aspect extending their result in eight factors after 29 video games, having performed yet another than Manchester Metropolis, solely to capitulate through the run-in.
Arsenal’s greatest benefit after 23 fixtures was a five-point lead in 2002-03. The time period ‘squeaky bum time’ originated later that season when then Manchester United supervisor Sir Alex Ferguson was looking for to heap stress on the Gunners. The north London aspect duly stumbled, finally ending 5 factors adrift as United regained the title.
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Precedent favours Gunners
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal aspect have gone three successive Premier League video games with out a win [BBC]
The Premier League leaders have been a minimum of 4 factors clear at this stage of the season on 20 earlier events – all however 4 of these went on to grow to be champions.
Newcastle famously blew a 12-point lead in 1995-96, whereas Manchester United relinquished a five-point benefit over Arsenal in 1997-98 earlier than the roles had been reversed 5 years later. Liverpool held a four-point lead in 2019 and had been unbeaten over their remaining 15 video games, profitable 11, however had been nonetheless edged out by a relentless Manchester Metropolis.
If we rewind per week to when Arsenal’s lead was seven factors, no aspect this century has blown a comparable benefit after 22 matches. In Premier League historical past, solely Newcastle in 1996 and Manchester United in 1998 – with respective leads of 9 and 7 factors – have did not win the title from a place just like Arsenal’s earlier than final weekend.
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‘Not a time to panic’
Information analysts Opta nonetheless give Arsenal an 81.7% likelihood of profitable the title, based mostly on 10,000 simulations of every staff’s remaining fixtures.
Pundits, although, are much less sure that Arsenal will finish their 22-year look forward to a league title this season, with a number of questioning whether or not Arteta and his gamers will maintain their nerve.
“There are nonetheless some questions concerning the psychological power of the staff,” says Arsenal’s former title-winning captain Patrick Vieira. “After I say now or by no means [to win the league], it’s as a result of different groups are usually not doing effectively.
“It will likely be unhappy to see them shedding that momentum, so that’s the reason it is very important stick collectively and create this togetherness to maintain performing.”
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5-time Premier League winner Peter Schmeichel informed BBC Radio 5 Dwell: “I feel the inexperience of everybody at Arsenal of not profitable the Premier League and having completed second for 3 years and being shut – that’s now coming again to them.
“It isn’t the stress from the surface, it’s extra internally. That’s one thing they must study [to cope with], and so they must study it shortly.”
Nonetheless, Premier League file goalscorer Alan Shearer nonetheless believes Arsenal will win the title due to their squad power, and added: “I do not assume it is a time to panic. You are going to get dodgy outcomes at some stage of the season. You have to keep calm.”
Arteta recognises that reality and informed the BBC after the Manchester United defeat: “The margins are extraordinarily small and we made them even smaller. Now we’ve to react and see what we’re manufactured from.”
The reply to that will effectively grow to be clearer once they face Leeds United at Elland Street on Saturday afternoon (15:00 GMT).