Manchester Metropolis are in peril of Champions League elimination, Liverpool are flying whereas Arsenal and Aston Villa are in good condition.
Celtic’s play-off hopes, in the meantime, are alive because the 36-team league part of the revamped Champions League approaches its climax.
The highest eight routinely progress to the final 16 and, crucially, skip the two-legged knockout play-off spherical.
Metropolis, the 2023 winners, are removed from the one heavyweights sitting uncomfortably.
Who qualifies for the knockout part?
First, here is a reminder of what the 36 league-phase groups are aiming for.
These ending within the high eight routinely progress to the final 16, the place they are going to be seeded.
They may await the winners of eight two-legged knockout play-off ties that includes the golf equipment ranked from ninth to twenty fourth.
These ending between ninth and sixteenth shall be seeded and face a workforce positioned seventeenth to twenty fourth, with the benefit of enjoying the second leg at dwelling.
The golf equipment twenty fifth or decrease are eradicated and don’t acquire entry to the Europa League.
Which groups have certified?
Liverpool and Barcelona grew to become the primary groups to qualify for the knockout stage on Tuesday night time with a sport to spare.
Arne Slot’s facet beat at Anfield to keep up their 100% document within the competitors this season.
The consequence means the Reds are assured a top-two end and due to this fact a high seeding place within the knockout draw.
Barcelona’s means the Spanish membership are additionally assured a end within the top-eight, though they might slip additional down the desk relying on different leads to Wednesday’s video games and subsequent week’s.
What about Arsenal, Aston Villa, Man Metropolis and Celtic?
Arsenal and Villa are each assured locations in at the least the play-offs however they are going to be hoping to go straight by way of to the final 16 by ending within the high eight.
The Gunners have two matches left, beginning with Wednesday’s dwelling sport in opposition to Dinamo Zagreb. Relying on different outcomes, a victory may affirm a top-eight end for Mikel Arteta’s facet.
Villa’s probabilities had been dented by a on Tuesday, however they continue to be within the high eight earlier than their remaining league-stage fixture in opposition to Celtic.
Celtic are twenty third within the desk – two locations above the elimination locations.
Brendan Rodgers’ facet tackle Younger Boys – who’re backside of the desk and with out a level within the Champions League this time period – at Celtic Park on Wednesday.
A win would nearly actually assure Celtic a knockout play-off spot.
Manchester Metropolis are a spot and a degree behind Celtic in twenty fourth.
Pep Guardiola’s facet face a frightening journey to Paris St-Germain on Wednesday earlier than a house tie in opposition to Membership Brugge on matchday eight.
A win in opposition to PSG would considerably increase Metropolis’s probabilities of a knockout play-off spot however it might not assure it.
An exhilarating finale is assured on 29 January when all 18 remaining group video games shall be performed concurrently at 20:00 GMT.
Does it matter the place you end in high eight?
Positively.
The place a workforce finishes within the league desk determines which opponents they face and once they can face them within the knockout levels.
Take Liverpool for instance. The Reds at the moment are assured a top-two end, which supplies them a seeded route by way of to the final 16.
Which means the Reds will face a workforce who completed fifteenth, sixteenth, seventeenth or 18th within the final 16 and so they can’t face the workforce who finishes second – presently Barcelona – till the latter rounds.
Against this, a workforce that finishes seventh or eighth will face one of many eight groups that comes by way of the play-offs. That may very well be a facet that had completed just under them within the league part – in ninth or tenth.
What is the distinction between ending ninth and twenty fourth?
This undoubtedly issues.
Groups ending between ninth and twenty fourth will face one another in a play-off spherical to find out who reaches the last-16.
There isn’t a play-off ‘draw’ as such – it’s decided by the place a membership finishes.
The workforce in ninth – the very best performing workforce exterior the highest eight – tackle the workforce in twenty fourth – the worst performing workforce exterior the highest eight.
And so forth. So tenth faces twenty third, eleventh performs twenty second, twelfth tackle twenty first. You get the thought.
In idea, your reward for ending ninth is to face the worst-performing workforce above the elimination zone.
That mentioned, as issues stand that may imply French membership Brest – who’re ninth – face Premier League champions Manchester Metropolis, who’re twenty fourth.
What number of factors are wanted to qualify?
Given that is the primary version of the brand new format, it stays to be seen precisely what number of factors shall be required to attain a top-eight end, or keep away from elimination from the competitors.
Earlier than this season’s competitors, Opta calculated every workforce’s projected factors tallies and chance of progressing primarily based on 50,000 simulations of the league part.
They discovered that 16 factors – probably 5 wins and one draw from eight matches – would give a 98% likelihood of ending within the high eight.
After gameweek 5, Opta recalculated and mentioned 16 factors would now give groups an 87% likelihood of a top-eight end.
In the meantime, attaining 10 factors – three wins and one draw, for instance – would give groups a 94% likelihood of securing a spot within the high 24.
Nonetheless, any workforce gathering fewer than eight factors can count on their involvement in European competitors this season to return to an finish.
Watch highlights of each Champions League sport from 22:00 on Wednesday on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport web site and app.
There may also be a Champions League Match of the Day on BBC One on Wednesday, from 22:40 to 00:00.