Has the Premier League title race been whittled down to 2 groups after simply 11 video games of the season?
Leaders Liverpool had the dream weekend after victory over Aston Villa coupled with defeat for Manchester Metropolis towards Brighton – and
They now lead Metropolis by 5 factors – and the remainder of the pack by 9 factors or extra.
Opta’s “supercomputer” provides Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal only a 3.5% likelihood of the title, with Chelsea down on 0.2% and anyone else on 0%.
“I might not write off anybody who’s up there now, completely not,” stated MOTD2 pundit and former Arsenal ahead Theo Walcott.
“Liverpool sooner or later are going to stumble and they’re going to have harm issues like each different crew.”
Are Arsenal out of the title race?
Arsenal followers had been hoping this was going to be their season after pushing Manchester Metropolis shut in every of the final two campaigns.
And with Metropolis faltering – on the again of 4 consecutive defeats in all competitions – this may need been their perfect likelihood.
However Liverpool are performing higher than anybody may have imagined below new boss Arne Slot, with 28 factors out of a attainable 33.
And the Gunners path the leaders by 9 factors on the finish of a weekend for the primary time because the closing day of 2022-23, once they completed 24 factors behind Manchester Metropolis.
They appeared dejected as the ultimate whistle went at Stamford Bridge.
Walcott stated: “The distinction with Arsenal at this second in time is that they’re missing in targets, whereas they don’t seem to be conceding many – however at this level of the season it is vital to think about who they’ve performed.
“I might say that, thus far, they’ve performed harder groups – they’ve performed six of final season’s prime 10, and 5 of these video games have been away from house.
“Plus, more often than not they’ve been with out their foremost participant, Martin Odegaard, and they’re nonetheless the place they’re.”
Captain Odegaard made his first Premier League look since August towards Chelsea and arrange Gabriel Martinelli’s opening purpose.
Walcott added: “Individuals are inclined to neglect all of that once they look into how Arsenal usually are not enjoying on the identical stage they had been finally 12 months, however for me it is without doubt one of the causes to not write them off within the title race.”
Gunners legend Paul Merson, talking on Sky Sports activities, stated: “He [Arteta] has bought to ensure it will get down to 6 factors slightly than go to 12.
“I believe they’re going to do nicely to catch Liverpool now. It’d keep at 9 till the top of December. If it goes to 12 then it is completed.”
Can Arsenal do it? Effectively, historical past isn’t on their aspect.
Excluding groups with video games in hand, no one has ever gained the Premier League title after being 9 (or extra) factors off prime with 11 video games gone.
Manchester Metropolis managed it in 2013-14 however leaders Arsenal had performed 12 video games by that stage.
Talking about his title rivals, Arteta stated his crew have to “win, win, win, win and win, as a result of these guys do not cease successful”.
In the event that they had been to win each remaining recreation this season they’d finish on 100 factors, with Liverpool’s present type placing them on target for 97 factors.
Liverpool’s title to lose?
Liverpool are solely the sixth crew in Premier League historical past to be 5 factors clear after 11 video games.
The primary 5 all gained the title – together with Liverpool in 2019-20, the final time a crew had been thus far clear at this stage.
There have been many doubts about how Liverpool would get on after the exit of legendary boss Jurgen Klopp final summer season – however they’re flying below Slot.
Reds midfielder Alexis Mac Allister admitted “earlier than the season began I might not say we had been candidates, however now it appears to be like like [we are]” after their 2-0 win over Villa.
Opta give them a 58.3% likelihood of the title – up from 5.1% earlier than the season.
Walcott stated: “What Liverpool have gotten going for them is that they have seemingly countless quantities of targets of their crew. In the event you take a look at their purpose distinction in comparison with the groups chasing them, it’s large.
“So it doesn’t actually matter in the event that they do begin conceding targets, as a result of they will outscore you.
“Liverpool are going to have harm issues like each different crew, or hit a stage the place all of the video games they should play within the Premier League and Champions League will begin to meet up with them.
“So that is simply the beginning [of the title race] however Liverpool’s firepower is the one factor of their favour. They’ve so many attacking choices they usually share their targets all through the crew – they share the workload in entrance of purpose, that is for certain.”
Ex-Reds midfielder Jamie Redknapp, talking on Sky Sports activities, stated “Arne Slot is the massive winner this weekend”.
“They should hold that momentum. Proper now, the ascendancy is with Liverpool. Liverpool play Man Metropolis in a few weeks,” he added.
That recreation is on Sunday, 1 December at Anfield.
How about Metropolis’s hopes?
Pep Guardiola has misplaced 4 video games in a row in all competitions for the primary time (excluding penalty shootouts) in a trophy-laden profession with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Metropolis.
Metropolis are bidding to win a fifth Premier League title in a row – however Opta solely give them a 38% likelihood of doing so. That determine was 82% earlier than a ball was kicked this season.
“Possibly after seven years successful six Premier Leagues, perhaps one 12 months one other crew deserve it,” stated Guardiola.
Nonetheless, they’re famously robust finishers and have solely misplaced 4 Premier League video games after Christmas previously three seasons.
Plus they’ve overcome a lot larger obstacles than a five-point deficit after 11 video games.
In reality, in all their four-in-a-row title-winning seasons they’ve trailed by six factors or extra at some stage, together with once they had been eight factors off Arsenal in April 2023.
Redknapp stated: “To Manchester Metropolis this seems like a little bit of a disaster.
“That is the primary time in a couple of years the place persons are saying Manchester Metropolis usually are not favourites to win the title due to the accidents they’ve.”
How about Chelsea and the remainder?
Chelsea, who’re in third place, Brighton and Nottingham Forest are all stage on 19 factors with fourth-placed Arsenal.
The Blues weren’t anticipated to problem for the title this season, having completed sixth final time period earlier than one other summer season of rebuilding.
Boss Enzo Maresca stated after Pedro Neto’s equaliser towards Arsenal that his crew are forward of schedule.
“For me we’re behind Metropolis and Arsenal,” the previous Metropolis assistant boss stated.
“Each day they work along with the identical supervisor for the previous 9 years. It doesn’t imply that we’re not going to attempt to win. We’re one of many greatest groups on the earth.
“I attempt to handle day-to-day. I am not apprehensive the place we might be on the finish of the season.”
Regardless of the exceptional begins of Brighton, who beat Metropolis, and Forest – who misplaced to Newcastle on Sunday – no one has actually talked about them in title phrases.
In reality Opta provides them each a 0.0% likelihood of topping the desk on the finish of the season.
The 11 groups from Chelsea in third to Manchester United in thirteenth are solely separated by 4 factors, which means the battle for Champions League locations is large open.