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Pep Guardiola strode into the Bernabeu Stadium’s palatial environment understanding Manchester Metropolis should overturn the chances – and logic – in a particular place that often reserves its miracles for Actual Madrid.

He has identified each emotion on this legendary enviornment on a Champions League journey that has introduced him right here with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester Metropolis.

And on Wednesday, Guardiola will as soon as extra seem alongside his pal and nice adversary, Actual Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti, beneath these towering stands understanding victory will rank amongst his best achievements.

Guardiola charges Metropolis’s possibilities of overturning a of this play-off to succeed in the final 16 as “1%”.

And, to gauge the opinions of locals in a metropolis that has held extra Champions League victory parades than every other, they really feel Guardiola is erring on the facet of optimism.

Guardiola was in measured temper when he appeared in entrance of the media on the Bernabeu, an setting that represented enemy territory throughout his time as participant and coach with Barcelona – and his message was crystal clear.

“We have now to make it virtually the right sport,” he stated. “We have now to assault. We have now to attain targets. That is the concept.”

Guardiola is set Metropolis is not going to go away the Bernabeu questioning or with regrets, saying: “We should play with braveness. We should be ourselves. It can want unbelievable braveness and we should play to win.

“We may nonetheless lose, however we’ve to point out that braveness and be ourselves. We have now to play so effectively, particularly after the consequence we took away within the first leg.”

Opta statistics fee Metropolis’s possibilities of advancing at a extra optimistic 19.8%, however these percentages should be seen by way of the prism of Actual’s historical past on this event and the muscle reminiscence that kicks in for the 15-time winners when it issues.

Guardiola’s document with Metropolis in opposition to Actual is chequered, although it began with victory within the final 16 in 2020, the 2 legs being performed six months aside due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Probably the most bitter second when Metropolis led by two targets on combination within the ninetieth minute of the semi-final second leg on the Bernabeu, just for Rodrygo to attain twice inside seconds, Karim Benzema’s injury-time penalty sending Actual on to eventual victory over Liverpool within the last in Paris.

When Guardiola, as Manchester Metropolis supervisor, claimed his third Champions League crown in 2023, after profitable with Barcelona in 2009 and 2011, Actual have been thrashed , the Spanish champions then prevailing on penalties final season.

He stated: “I’ve some unbelievable reminiscences right here – typically good ones, typically not so good.

“We all know at this stage, and on this stadium, the strain is there – however you get that in Milan, in Barcelona, at Anfield. You must endure at these locations, however you must cut back these moments.”

Actual’s exceptional win in opposition to Metropolis in 2022 is the form of sporting lightning strike Guardiola will search to show again on them, however he should do it with a fading staff that has misplaced its home supremacy after profitable a historic 4 successive Premier Leagues, and now faces the prospect of going out of the Champions League earlier than the final 16 for the primary time in 12 years.

The wily Ancelotti was not taking Guardiola’s bait about percentages when he spoke in Madrid on Tuesday, saying: “He would not actually suppose that. We do not suppose we’ve a 99% probability. We have now a small benefit – and we’ve to make the most of that.”

Guardiola responded: “For the primary time he did not imagine me. I all the time say what I feel, and this time you do not imagine me.”

Statistics pile up like big obstacles in entrance of Metropolis’s path to the final 16, explaining why Actual are overwhelming favourites after two targets in a late surge gave them victory at Etihad Stadium.

It was the fortieth time Actual have received the primary leg of a European knockout-stage tie away from house, progressing on 37 of the earlier 39 events.

Metropolis’s defeat, in the meantime, was the fifth time they’ve misplaced the primary leg of a Champions League knockout-stage tie, occurring to be eradicated on the earlier 4 events.

For Ancelotti, this event’s best coach with 5 wins, he shall be assembly Guardiola within the Champions League for the tenth time, on eight events with Actual in opposition to Metropolis. The Italian has received 4 of their 9 conferences, by no means dropping at house, profitable two video games and drawing two.

Of more moderen significance is that to unseat the holders, Metropolis must alter poor type within the competitors after dropping their previous three away video games to Sporting, Juventus and Paris St-Germain.

Guardiola’s spirits shall be lifted by Saturday’s which included a hat-trick inside 14 first-half minutes for brand new Egyptian signing Omar Marmoush, whereas Erling Haaland demonstrated his high quality with each targets within the first-leg defeat, his first in opposition to Actual Madrid.

Haaland has been prolific within the Champions League, scoring 49 targets in 48 video games. If he scores on the Bernabeu, he’ll turn into the quickest participant to 50 targets in appearances and age, at 24 years and 213 days.

It may even be a Champions League farewell to Manchester Metropolis for contemporary greats of the membership corresponding to Kevin de Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and goalkeeper Ederson, whereas others corresponding to Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic are additionally of their 30s.

Guardiola wouldn’t be drawn as he stated: “I wish to reply this however will probably be on the finish of the season. We nonetheless have so much to play for, to qualify for the Champions League subsequent season, we’re nonetheless there within the Champions League this season. We have now the FA Cup and the Membership World Cup.”

Silva added: “If you happen to had informed me at the beginning of the season that we might be on this place within the Champions League and the Premier League I would not have believed you. We need to be on this difficult scenario due to the place we completed.

“We have now to imagine. We nonetheless imagine issues can go our manner, however this season is actually a lesson for the long run.”

For Manchester Metropolis, that future is now – within the forbidding, unforgiving environment of the Bernabeu on Wednesday.

And if Guardiola can overcome these “1%” odds on this footballing cathedral, it can rank alongside the most effective outcomes of his profession.