If second-placed Chelsea beat league leaders Arsenal at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, they are going to be simply three factors behind their London rivals.
So can Enzo Maresca’s facet upset the chances to win the Premier League this season?
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Arsenal are on a 16-match unbeaten run as they bid to finish their 21-year Premier League title drought, having final misplaced on 31 August at Liverpool.
Nevertheless, Chelsea, who’ve had an additional day’s relaxation after their 3-0 Champions League win at residence to Barcelona on Tuesday, are on their very own six-game unbeaten run – and feeling assured.
Requested concerning the significance of a win on Sunday, Chelsea supervisor Enzo Maresca stated: “We nonetheless have 5 or 6 months to go. Will probably be vital the place we’re in February or March, we’ll see then.”
We take a look at whether or not the numbers again Chelsea’s probabilities of mounting a sustained title problem.
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Does knowledge say Chelsea are constant sufficient?
In easy phrases, Chelsea are taking part in properly – however not properly sufficient to be champions.
Chelsea’s assault, even after dropping Cole Palmer for greater than two months by means of harm, is on the identical stage as Arsenal’s.
Nevertheless, Arsenal’s unimaginable defensive statistics set them aside.
Traditionally, to win the title a group must common a +1 non-penalty anticipated objectives (npXG) distinction per recreation – that means you might be creating considerably extra possibilities than you concede on a constant foundation.
Solely Arsenal are reaching that measure of consistency thus far this season, with Chelsea needing to enhance defensively.
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Having crushed Liverpool, Tottenham and Barcelona this time period, Spain left-back Marc Cucurella stated his facet’s inconsistency in opposition to lesser opposition is a matter.
“I feel we dropped factors this season in opposition to groups the place you count on to win,” stated the defender.
Apparently, Arsenal’s distinctive defence threatens Chelsea’s document for probably the most clear sheets (25) and fewest objectives conceded (15) in a Premier League marketing campaign, achieved underneath Jose Mourinho in 2005.
“You may see they do not concede objectives,” Maresca stated. “They’re defensively the most effective group and prime of the league and Champions League, so they’re the group to beat.”
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There are apparent stylistic similarities between the 2 groups – each play a affected person possession fashion that includes excessive urgent.
One more key distinction is the standard of set-pieces. Arsenal are the most effective attacking set-piece group within the league, with 10 objectives in 12 matches and the very best xG at 7.88. Chelsea, in the meantime, rank second with eight set-piece objectives and have the fourth-highest xG at 5.44.
Regardless of Arsenal conceding just one fewer set-piece aim than Chelsea – three in comparison with 4 – they’ve the second-best xG in opposition to (2.04) when defending such conditions, whereas Chelsea are the second-worst (6.40). Regardless of an enchancment on final season, it might nonetheless be asking for hassle when Arsenal come to city.
Chelsea should additionally overcome an more and more poor document in opposition to Arsenal on Sunday, with only one win of their previous 11 Premier League conferences. The Gunners are additionally unbeaten in six at Stamford Bridge.
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Can Chelsea attain Arsenal’s stage or are they too younger?
Chelsea are clearly top-four materials primarily based on their underlying statistics.
They began Maresca’s first season properly and, curiously, Chelsea’s defence is stronger this time period, regardless of coping with the lack of key defender Levi Colwill to a long-term harm.
After Maresca stated his facet had been “not prepared” to win the Premier League at this level final season – regardless of followers chanting “We have our Chelsea again” – the Italian appears extra optimistic this time round.
The 45-year-old stated: “For certain, it is completely different in comparison with one yr in the past as a result of we spent yet another yr collectively.
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“Then once more, we’re on the finish of November so it is rather early. It is vital to see the place we’re in March or April. In 18 months collectively, these gamers confirmed many instances they’ll beat [top] groups.”
Maresca will hope to keep away from a equally poor winter run that nearly value his group Champions League qualification final season.
Whereas he didn’t see qualification as a necessity in 2024-25, it actually is that this season, together with his future as supervisor to be reviewed on the finish of this marketing campaign.
That stated, Chelsea’s hierarchy would additionally view any title problem this season as being forward of schedule. Solely final month they had been having to present Maresca a vote of confidence throughout an early season wobble.
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At the moment, Chelsea confronted questions regarding whether or not they had been too younger or rotating an excessive amount of.
Together with 5 final day out, Chelsea have now made 103 adjustments to their beginning XIs in all competitions this season – probably the most of any Premier League facet – averaging seven or extra adjustments for six video games in a row (45 whole) earlier than the worldwide break.
Chelsea had the youngest-ever beginning XI over a 38-game Premier League season in 24-25, averaging 24 years and 36 days.
No group has gained a Premier League title with a mean beginning XI aged underneath 25.
Maresca is choosing marginally older gamers this season, with a mean beginning XI age of 24 years and 169 days, however they continue to be the fourth-youngest group in Europe’s huge 5 leagues.
Arsenal, by comparability, are almost two years older per participant, at 26 years and 166 days.
Striker Liam Delap advised he thought Chelsea are able to profitable both the Premier League or Champions League on Tuesday evening, echoing Colwill’s feedback after Chelsea gained the Convention League and Membership World Cup on the finish of final season.
Though hardly ever stated publicly, BBC Sport understands a number of different gamers additionally imagine Chelsea can obtain these objectives this season.
Extra knowledge assortment and visualisations by Chris Collinson