Italy coach Gennaro Gattuso wasn’t glad this weekend.
And that was even earlier than his workforce at dwelling to Norway on Sunday, confirming they may now enter the lottery of play-offs to safe a spot on the 2026 World Cup.
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You’ll be able to perceive why Gattuso could be involved, given Italy missed the World Cup in 2018 and 2022 after being crushed by Sweden and North Macedonia respectively within the play-offs.
For the primary time, the 2026 event – which can be staged in Canada, Mexico and america subsequent June and July – will characteristic 48 nations.
By ending second of their group, Italy need to face two single-leg play-offs to safe their place on the World Cup, which they gained in 1934, 1938, 1982 and 2006.
Gattuso bemoaned that having qualifying report – Italy gained six of their eight video games – is not sufficient as a result of they completed as runners-up, and highlighted South America’s six direct qualification slots and Africa’s 9.
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Was Gattuso making a good level? Or was it simply bitter grapes?
What did Gattuso say?
The Italy coach was talking on Friday, when objective distinction meant their destiny was successfully sealed earlier than they performed Norway.
“In my day, the perfect [group] runners-up went straight to the World Cup, now the foundations have modified,” Gattuso mentioned.
“Italy’s report of six wins? You’d need to ask the individuals who make the teams and the foundations.
“In 1990 and 1994, there have been two African groups, now there are 9. It is not an argument, however there are difficulties, and we all know it properly.
“If we take a look at South America, the place six out of 10 groups go on to the World Cup and the seventh heads right into a play-off with a workforce from Oceania, that does offer you regrets and a sure unhappiness. That’s the disappointment. The system wants to alter in Europe.”
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There are some factual inaccuracies in what Gattuso mentioned.
Firstly, three African nations took half within the 1994 World Cup. And Bolivia – who completed seventh in South America – should not sure to play a workforce from Oceania, which might be New Caledonia. Even when they did that will be in a semi-final with one other sport towards one of many two highest-ranked nations to win one of many final locations on the World Cup.
Additionally, in 1990 not all runners-up mechanically certified mechanically, with Denmark lacking out.
Is there any benefit to Gattuso’s complaints?
Italy are in peril of lacking out on the World Cup for a 3rd successive time [Getty Images]
Firstly, we have to take into account why European World Cup qualifying works because it does.
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There was far fewer international locations taking part in worldwide soccer than there are at the moment. In 1990, 32 Uefa nations took half in qualifying and in 1994 there have been 39.
In the present day, there are 54 Uefa nations competing to be one in all 16 European groups that may make it to subsequent summer time’s World Cup finals.
Extra groups means extra video games, particularly for those who attempt to hold a system of group winners and runners-up qualifying. Technically, you possibly can do that by having eight teams of six or seven international locations.
Nonetheless, a seven-team group would want 12 matchdays, and the worldwide match calendar solely has 10 slots every year. You would need to improve the footprint of World Cup qualifying and scrap the Uefa Nations League.
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Uefa determined to go together with smaller teams of 4 and 5 nations partly to restrict the depth of qualifying – the other of what Gattuso suggests.
Italy have been the highest seeds of their group and have been maybe unlucky to be positioned with Norway, one of many fastest-improving groups. However they misplaced each video games convincingly, by an combination rating of 7-1.
Does South America have it too simple?
Brazil certified for the World Cup regardless of shedding six video games, however would anybody query their participation?
Solely 10 international locations in South America participate in World Cup qualifying, with six computerized slots. That’s 60%, in comparison with 29.62% of Uefa.
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However we have to take into account the relative strengths of the confederations.
The bottom ranked nation in South America are Bolivia in 76th, whereas eight of the ten sit inside the highest 50. That is by far the very best proportion of top-level international locations.
Uefa has 26 groups inside the highest 50 – just below 50% – and 20 international locations ranked decrease than Bolivia. Of the 20, solely Kosovo nonetheless have an opportunity of qualifying.
Granted, Bolivia’s 10 defeats whereas nonetheless having a path to the World Cup stands out, however they did have eight matches towards groups on the earth’s prime 20.
Italy had it a lot simpler, with Norway ranked forty third in the beginning of European qualifying (they’re now twenty ninth).
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Then there’s the journey, with the perfect gamers having to fly from Europe to South America for 18 qualifiers throughout 9 separate two-game worldwide breaks over two years. They normally play one sport at dwelling and one away, and meaning extra journey.
It is a extra gruelling course of, whereas Italy performed eight matches this yr with minimal relative journey.
Was Gattuso truthful on Africa?
Except for Cape Verde, who’re making their debut subsequent yr, Africa’s qualifiers are all established on the world stage: Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa and Tunisia.
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Six are on the earth’s prime 50 with Ghana, in 73rd, the lowest-ranked of the 9. It will be a stretch to recommend any of those international locations do not need to be there over a European nation.
However what do the numbers inform us? Let’s use relative energy once more by trying on the prime 50 and weighting it to the confederation.
Uefa has seen its share of the World Cup locations fall, from 54% within the Nineteen Nineties, to 33.33% at the moment – but practically half of its groups (46.30%) are inside the highest 50.
So, is it truthful that Europe was solely given three extra slots when Fifa added one other 16 locations for the 2026 occasion?
Africa now will get 9 locations with 53 members, 21.43% of the automated slots however solely seven (14%) are contained in the world’s prime 50. That implies they may be over-represented by a small quantity, however not an excessive amount of.
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Concacaf is about on level with relative energy. It now will get six nations on the World Cup (14.29%), with 5 of its 32 groups (15.63%) within the prime 50.
The actual outlier is Asia, which has solely 4 of its 46 collaborating nations (8.70%) within the prime 50, but it will get eight computerized locations (19.05%).
So maybe Gattuso did have a degree in there someplace, however he is unlikely to get any sympathy.