By successful Group D, the US has already booked a spot within the Spherical of 32 on the 2026 World Cup.
So who will they play within the knockout spherical?
That … is a sophisticated query. An advanced query that includes brackets, Annex C of the FIFA Guidelines and Laws, a matrix, and 495 potential combos of the eight third-place groups advancing out of group play and into the knockout spherical.
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So, let’s attempt to reply that query the very best we are able to, beginning with the World Cup bracket itself.
The 2026 World Cup bracket
Let’s begin right here, with this World Cup bracket courtesy of USA Right now.
If you happen to look all the way down to the bottom-left quadrant of this bracket, you will note the place the US will likely be slotted in when the Spherical of 32 is finalized. Because the winners of Group D, they’ll slide into that “1D” spot, and play a 3rd place staff from Group B, E, F, I, or J.
With the enlargement of the World Cup to 48 groups, the highest two groups from every group advance to the Spherical of 32, plus the eight finest third-place groups. Extra on that in a second.
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Who’re the potential opponents for the US?
So, who would possibly the US see within the Spherical of 32?
Listed here are the groups in every potential group. For extra on every group, you may go to the hyperlink, which takes you to the total standings and knockout-round eventualities for every of these teams.
As of publication, these are the third-place groups in every of these teams: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden, Senegal, and Jordan. Nonetheless, solely Ecuador and Sweden. Nonetheless, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Senegal, and Jordan will not be among the many eight finest third-place groups, so if the Spherical of 32 started immediately, the choices for the US can be all the way down to Ecuador or Sweden. Extra on that in a second.
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You possibly can learn extra in regards to the , the place we’re updating the third-place standings after every match.
Previous to the World Cup, FIFA revealed , which outlines the 495 attainable combos for the third-place groups. That matrix, and people 495 attainable combos, dictate the matches involving the third-place groups.
On the time of publication, with Teams B, I, J, and L sitting on the backside of the third-place standings, that mixture is present in Annex C as mixture 283. In that situation, the US would play … the third-place staff from Group E.
Which proper now could be Ecuador.
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One other good technique of visualizing these combos comes courtesy of .
So for the second, the US is ready to tackle Ecuador. However because the third-place standings shift, the mix will change, the matrix will likely be adjusted, and we are going to provide the updates accordingly.
In wanting on the 495 attainable combos, it must be famous that 329 of these lead to the US enjoying Group B, 39 combos lead to the US enjoying Group E, 11 combos lead to the US enjoying Group F, 52 combos lead to the US enjoying Group I, and 64 lead to the US enjoying Group J.
So it’s no marvel that many imagine that finally, the US will play the third-place staff from Group B, which might come all the way down to the winner of Wednesday’s match between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar.
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One other method to take a look at the eventualities? In keeping with the consultants at Anticipating Targets, there’s a 60% probability that the US performs Bosnia and Herzegovina within the Spherical of 32, and a 17% probability the US performs Qatar:
Senegal and Ecuador spherical out the choices, with Senegal at 6% and Ecuador at 4%.
Will that maintain?
We’ll know for certain in a couple of days.