Arsenal will spend Christmas Day on high of the Premier League tree this 12 months, whereas Wolves, Burnley and West Ham are hanging precariously on the underside branches.
As we strategy the midway level of the season, what do the ghosts of Christmas previous inform us concerning the title race and relegation battle?
Commercial
The title race
The group that’s high of the Premier League on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title in 17 of the earlier 33 seasons – principally a flip of a chocolate coin.
Nonetheless, Arsenal themselves have a a lot bleaker report as they have been high at Christmas 4 instances earlier than however have by no means gone on to raise the trophy.
The Gunners had solely been high at this stage twice earlier than Mikel Arteta took cost, however that is the third time in 4 seasons that they sit high of the tree at Christmas.
Their followers will hope that the knowledge Arteta’s males have obtained in seasons previous will see them lastly maintain off Manchester Metropolis and ship the present they have been wishing for since 2004.
Commercial
“You’d prefer to assume that by all of the experiences that Arsenal have had being high at Christmas, they will perceive the errors made within the again half of some seasons that stopped them from successful the title,” former Manchester Metropolis defender Nedum Onuoha informed Soccer Focus.
There is not a variety of room for error, although, as Arsenal have a slender lead of simply two factors, whereas the typical lead by the group high on Christmas Day is 4 factors.
In actual fact, the one table-toppers at Christmas to have a smaller lead than Arsenal within the final 12 seasons had been the Gunners themselves two years in the past.
However whereas a two-point lead is not a lot, historical past suggests it may be sufficient.
Commercial
Arsenal are the eighth aspect in Premier League historical past to have a two-point lead at Christmas and 5 of the earlier seven went on to win the title, together with the final 4.
Bizarrely, Arsenal are the one aspect to win the Premier League with out ever doing it after they had been high at Christmas, as all three of their titles got here when chasing the leaders right now of 12 months.
They had been sixth and an unimaginable 13 factors behind leaders Man Utd in 1997-98, second and three factors behind Newcastle in 2001-02 and third and one level behind Man Utd at Christmas time in 2003-04.
That 13-point deficit in 1997-98 is essentially the most factors a group has ever been behind the leaders at Christmas and gained the title (Arsenal did have a recreation in hand), whereas the bottom the eventual champions have been within the desk at this stage is eighth, by Manchester Metropolis within the Covid-delayed season of 2020-21.
Commercial
Weirdly, the group in second on Christmas Day has gone on to win the title in solely two of the previous 17 seasons, though each instances it was Manchester Metropolis who did so.
In actual fact, within the final 5 seasons the place the leaders at Christmas didn’t go on to win the title, the Premier League was gained every time by Manchester Metropolis.
Will this season be totally different for Arsenal?
For a lot of Arsenal followers, there might be a way of deja vu. Main the Premier League at Christmas earlier than being eaten up by a relentless Pep Guardiola aspect is one thing the Gunners have gotten a bit bit used to.
Seeing a seven-point lead over Manchester Metropolis minimize to 2 within the house of 5 video games will not precisely fill them with confidence both.
Commercial
“We’re again on high of the desk however we’re not watching Metropolis an excessive amount of, or the opposite groups,” mentioned Bukayo Saka. “We’re in management now. We all know if we win each week we’ll keep there.”
Arteta added: “The one factor we will management is our personal efficiency and outcomes and we all know how lengthy it should be and the way robust is that this league. That is it.”
Manchester Metropolis have clearly received historical past on their aspect. Guardiola has gained the Premier League title six instances, the Bundesliga thrice with Bayern Munich and La Liga thrice with Barcelona. Arteta has no league titles as a supervisor.
Guardiola’s squad are stuffed with Premier League winners, gamers who know what it takes to finish a marketing campaign in sturdy vogue. Compared, solely Gabriel Jesus among the many Arsenal squad has gained a Premier League, 4 instances in his days as a Manchester Metropolis participant. Moderately than Arsenal being serial winners in latest instances, they’ve expertise of dropping leads over the previous few seasons.
Commercial
Why cannot this season be totally different although? Manchester Metropolis look removed from the relentless aspect they’ve in earlier seasons – and have already misplaced 4 video games this marketing campaign, in contrast with Arsenal’s two losses.
“We might be there. In the event that they comply with me we might be there, however we have now to enhance,” mentioned Guardiola.
“I do know the extent in Europe, within the Premier League, I do know Arsenal and the opposite groups and the way robust they’re. It’s not sufficient.
“The spirit is there. Final season we didn’t have the spirit or aggression or starvation – all of the attributes they want. It’s not concerning the highlights and the way good the actions are, there’s something that comes from inside the place we are going to get better from the Membership World Cup.”
Commercial
Metropolis’s assault is flowing, having scored 10 extra targets than Arsenal, however having additionally conceded six extra – you are feeling the title race might be outlined by whether or not Metropolis’s targets can outshine Arsenal’s solidity.
The relegation battle
Solely 4 instances in 33 Premier League seasons has the aspect backside on Christmas Day survived, with the newest being Wolves in 2022-23.
However with simply two factors gained and a report 16 factors from security, it will take not only a Christmas miracle however a New Yr’s, Valentine’s and Easter one too for backside aspect Wolves to outlive as soon as once more.
Second-bottom Burnley have a combating likelihood as a result of nearly half the groups of their place at Christmas have stayed up, though the one time that is occurred prior to now eight seasons was when Eddie Howe led Newcastle to eleventh in 2021-22.
Commercial
West Ham followers have essentially the most purpose to be optimistic because the group in 18th has survived in two out of three seasons on common, most not too long ago Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 and Wolves final day trip.
The most definitely consequence is that considered one of West Ham, Burnley and Wolves will keep up as that is occurred simply over half the time, with two groups surviving in 12 of the earlier 33 seasons.
The three groups backside at Christmas have by no means all survived, whereas solely 4 instances in Premier League historical past have all three been relegated, though two of these occurred not too long ago, in 2020-21 and 2023-24.
By way of who might be relegated of their place, the group flying highest at Christmas that in the end went down had been Norwich in 1994-95, who had been seventh with 30 factors and 11 factors above the drop.
Commercial
That was in a 42-game season, although. In a 38-game marketing campaign, one of the best group on Christmas Day to be relegated had been Blackpool in 2010-11, who had been tenth with 22 factors however completed nineteenth with 39 factors.
Newcastle in 2008-09 had been twelfth with 22 factors and went down, whereas essentially the most factors a relegated aspect has been above the underside three at Christmas is seven by Studying in 2007-08, who had been twelfth with 21 factors.
CORRECTION 21 DECEMBER: This story has been corrected after initially stating that “not one of the Arsenal squad have gained a Premier League”. Gabriel Jesus gained 4 league titles whereas enjoying for Manchester Metropolis.