Emboldened by betting towards Erling Haaland with the captain’s armband final gameweek with delicate success, I’ve taken a courageous, and probably rash, step additional this week – he isn’t even within the FPL group of the week!
Gulp.
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The idea is that Newcastle away is without doubt one of the hardest video games round so it is one other probability to captain a unique participant and maybe get a bounce on the sphere.
Haaland has only one objective in six league and cup video games towards the Magpies.
The Manchester Metropolis striker faces Leeds, Fulham and Sunderland within the subsequent three weeks when most managers will captain him with no second thought.
And at £14.9m, Haaland is an costly asset to squeeze in your group – alongside £14.2m Mohamed Salah this week – for those who aren’t captaining him. Having each makes the remainder of your group weaker, in my view.
Let’s have a look at if this plan works or backfires badly!
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The group of the week is chosen primarily based on present FPL costs to suit inside a £100m price range, as for those who had been taking part in a Free Hit.
Do not miss our FPL particular Q&A with professional Gianni Buttice, reside on the BBC Sport web site at 15:30 BST on Friday, 21 November.
How did final week’s group do?
Captaining Joao Pedro (14 factors) and a punt on Morgan Gibbs-White (10 factors) had been the important thing performances in – seven above the very low common rating of 38.
BBC Sport’s FPL group of gameweek 12
[BBC Sport]
Keeper and defence
David Raya, Arsenal, keeper, £5.9m – Tottenham (h)
With no fixture this week leaping out as an apparent clear sheet, why not go for the keeper from the very best defence within the league.
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With or with out the injured Gabriel, Arsenal’s defence may properly maintain Spurs out.
Thomas Frank’s facet have simply 4 factors from their previous 5 video games and aren’t firing in assault.
Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool, £5.9m – Nottingham Forest (h)
It is time to bounce on Liverpool’s beneficial upcoming fixture run, beginning with a house recreation towards a Forest facet with simply two factors and two objectives on the highway this season.
Malo Gusto, Chelsea, £4.9m – Burnley (a)
This Chelsea defence has three clear sheets in its previous 4 video games and can fancy one other at Burnley.
The Clarets have not been too dangerous attacking smart, scoring 14 instances to this point. They failed to search out the web towards Spurs, Liverpool and Arsenal, however did handle objectives towards Manchester Metropolis and Manchester United.
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So it seems like a 50-50 probability of a clear sheet right here, however Gusto additionally has a whole lot of attacking potential – demonstrated by his goalscoring 15-pointer within the final gameweek.
Marco Senesi, Bournemouth, £5m – West Ham (h)
Senesi now has defensive contribution factors (defcon) in eight of 11 video games this season.
West Ham come into this recreation off the again of two straight wins, house to Newcastle and Burnley, however I am not satisfied they’ve all of a sudden turned a nook.
Bournemouth, although, will desire a sturdy house efficiency following the humiliation away at Aston Villa final outing.
Joachim Andersen, Fulham, £4.5m – Sunderland (h)
One other price range defcon magnet in a house recreation.
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Sunderland are flying excessive in fourth place, however have solely scored thrice in 5 away league video games.
Andersen can also be due an attacking return – his anticipated objectives (xG) is 0.48 this season and anticipated assists (xA) 0.97. But he has nothing to point out for it.
Midfielders
Mohamed Salah (captain), Liverpool, £14.2m – Nottingham Forest (h)
Salah has had a disappointing season, little doubt about that.
However there are nonetheless loads of indicators in his underlying information that we’d see a number of the previous Salah quickly.
No participant has created extra massive probabilities than his 5 and he’s joint fourth for essentially the most probabilities created (21).
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He is additionally joint third for photographs (27) and photographs within the field (23).
Solely 4 objectives and two assists after 11 video games isn’t lots to point out for issues, however think about three extra factors:
Liverpool begin a juicy fixture run, beginning with Forest at house.
They’ve simply had a global break for boss Arne Slot to work on turning their poor type round.
And it is Mo blooming Salah – previous performances say he’ll come good in some unspecified time in the future.
Bruno Fernandes, Manchester United, £8.9m – Everton (h)
This is a person with even higher stats than Salah.
Fernandes has a constant probability of defcon (he has solely acquired fewer than eight factors as soon as this season) and, with out his two missed penalties, he’d be near Antoine Semenyo as the highest midfielder.
Only a very constant FPL alternative with free-kicks and penalties in his locker.
United have scored 11 objectives of their 4 house wins this season, have a top-five assault and may rating not less than a pair towards Everton.
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Benjamin Sesko’s damage may imply Fernandes performs a extra superior function towards Everton as properly.
Bryan Mbeumo, Manchester United, £8.5m – Everton (h)
We’re going all in on United’s assault this week and Mbeumo is the plain second alternative.
He has 4 objectives and an help in his previous 5 video games and is high three amongst midfielders for photographs, photographs heading in the right direction, massive probabilities and photographs within the field.
Sesko’s absence may see him play at centre-forward too.
Antoine Semenyo, Bournemouth, £8.1m – West Ham (h)
The star of the season to this point has now had 4 duff video games in a row – 4, 3, 2 and nil factors.
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He solely had six photographs in these video games, together with a missed penalty.
However a house recreation towards the second-worst defence within the league – 23 objectives conceded – is the time for Semenyo to bounce again.
If not, homeowners – and that’s practically 64% of FPL managers – is likely to be proper to be fearful.
Regulate Semenyo’s ankle damage that pressured him out of Ghana’s current recreation – Marcus Tavernier (£5.5m) is an honest price range back-up alternative.
Yankuba Minteh, Brighton, £6m – Brentford (h)
Minteh is likely to be the very best £6m midfield choice within the recreation.
He is acquired extra assists than some other midfielder – 5 together with Mohammed Kudus – and, for those who’ve watched any of his current video games, he is left a good few factors on the pitch, with missed probabilities and nearly-assists.
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His xG for instance is 2.1 but he solely has one objective. Gamers are likely to outperform their xG over a season.
Brentford are in cracking type, however they’ve additionally conceded two objectives per recreation away from house.
Striker
Joao Pedro, Chelsea, £7.7m – Burnley (a)
In Haaland’s absence, one man leads the road this week.
Joao Pedro has two objectives in two league video games and I am backing Chelsea’s attacking prowess to beat Burnley’s cussed house defence.
The Clarets are a head scratcher – they’ve let in simply 4 objectives at house however 18 in six away video games. That may certainly even out a bit.
Subs bench
Senne Lammens, Manchester United, keeper, £5m – Everton (h)
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Adrien Truffert, Bournemouth, defender, £4.5m – West Ham (h)
Lukas Nmecha, Leeds, striker, £5m – Aston Villa (h)
Marc Guiu, Chelsea, striker, £4.2m – Burnley (a)
Staff complete value: £98.1m