Leicester shocked the world in 2016 once they received the the Premier League – however may Nottingham Forest be about to do the identical?
Third within the Premier League with the joint second-best defence within the division and probably the most clear sheets, this rejuvenated membership are not the shock bundle.
Victory in opposition to Liverpool on Tuesday would equal their membership file of seven straight top-flight wins, set in 1922 – and, if they can over the Premier League leaders, they are going to be simply three factors behind them.
This all comes after final season’s battles. They survived on the ultimate day, ending seventeenth, having incurred a four-point deduction for breaching revenue and sustainability guidelines.
, and all contributed to a turbulent season.
Arguably – and in August some on the Metropolis Floor agreed – Forest wanted a season of anonymity. A fuss-free marketing campaign would have represented progress on and off the pitch.
Nevertheless, beneath December’s supervisor of the month Nuno Espirito Santo they’ve outstripped expectation in spectacular fashion.
On the 70 events that groups have earned 40 factors or extra from their first 20 video games in a Premier League marketing campaign, solely 4 sides have failed to complete inside the highest 4 on the finish of the season.
Since 2000, the common factors wanted to win the Premier League has been 89.2, with 81.6 for second, 74.5 for third, 69.5 for fourth and 65.6 for fifth.
Regardless of that, Opta’s predictions mannequin nonetheless offers Forest 0% likelihood of profitable the title and solely 0.7% of ending second, which contrasts with the boldness inside the squad.
“We’re on this combat for the title as a result of we need to be,” says Forest defender Morato.
Liverpool boss Arne Slot agrees, that Forest “undoubtedly are a group that’s in competitors with us and with the opposite groups” on the high.
Forest are matching Leicester’s factors tally
The comparisons to East Midlands rivals Leicester are unavoidable.
The Foxes’ 5,000-1 title win in 2016 was one among sport’s best achievements, with Leicester having initially been one of many favourites for relegation after pulling off an important escape within the season earlier than.
Claudio Ranieri’s aspect received the league by 10 factors and misplaced simply three video games. They have been on 40 factors after 20 video games in 2015-16, the identical whole as Forest have now.
Leicester’s success was constructed on Jamie Vardy’s tempo, the specter of Riyad Mahrez and Marc Albrighton on the flanks and the vitality of N’Golo Kante in midfield.
Wes Morgan skippered them to the title having joined from Forest in 2012 after a 10-year profession on the Metropolis Floor.
“The previous few video games, when it is in touching distance, issues get a bit twitchy, and also you begin pondering, ‘Proper, we can’t slip up’,” stated Morgan.
“Whereas earlier than it was ‘there’s nothing to lose, we’re doing nice. Let’s simply maintain going.'”
Defender Morgan made 323 appearances for the Foxes and in addition received the FA Cup in 2021.
Explaining the method of chasing the title, Morgan stated: “While you’re so near that objective, to attaining one thing no-one thought could be potential, you begin off taking issues a bit extra… I do not need to say severely as a result of we all the time take it severely, however there’s much more emphasis in ensuring we do issues proper.”
Forest have the Vardy-like focus of 12-goal Chris Wooden, with Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga out broad and Morgan Gibbs-White joined by Elliot Anderson in midfield.
‘The very best counter-attacking group within the league?’
Forest have been described because the Premier League’s greatest counter-attackers, however the statistics say in any other case.
Their 33 quick breaks have culminated in 29 photographs however simply 4 objectives. It’s a surprisingly low quantity contemplating how harmful Forest have been.
Tottenham have scored probably the most breakaway objectives – 10 – whereas Chelsea, Liverpool and Wolves have all scored greater than Forest.
Elanga has three objectives in his previous 5 video games – however they have been his first since final February. He has 4 assists, too, whereas Hudson-Odoi has two objectives and two assists. There’s little doubt there must be extra finish product from each.
Forest have a conversion charge of 31.9% for his or her large possibilities, scoring 15 of their 47. Elanga and Hudson-Odoi have created six such possibilities between them, the identical quantity as Morgan Gibbs-White.
Their possession can also be the bottom within the Premier League at 39.4% and solely the underside 5 of Everton, Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves and Southampton have a worse xG – their anticipated objectives tally – than Forest’s 25.9.
Nuno’s aspect have made simply 929 passes into the ultimate third, with solely Southampton [887] and Ipswich [925] managing fewer. Arsenal high that chart with 3,192.
The numbers recommend Forest are defying knowledge tendencies, however they’re ruthless and efficient, whereas Nuno has additionally praised their spirit.
After beating Burnley to seal survival on the ultimate day final season, Nuno advised the squad one of many causes they’d stayed up was due to their characters, calling them good guys.
He likes to work with a small squad, permitting everybody to really feel they’ve an opportunity of creating the group, which additionally fosters a togetherness.
“It isn’t but ok,” he stated, joking concerning the spirit final week. “It means so much to the squad; once they have particular moments everybody sees how comfortable they’re.”
Sensational Sels’ tremendous stats
On 1 February final yr Forest introduced the signing of Matz Sels from Ligue 1 aspect Strasbourg for a charge of about £5m.
Matt Turner had joined from Arsenal for £10m in the summertime earlier than, whereas Forest additionally purchased Benfica’s Odysseas Vlachodimos.
Turner made 21 appearances in all competitions and Vlachodimos seven, earlier than Nuno – who changed Steve Cooper in December 2023 – turned to Sels.
The Belgian new arrival managed only one clear sheet – in opposition to West Ham – and conceded 27 occasions as Forest survived.
Nevertheless, with the addition of Milenkovic and Morato in defence over the summer time, becoming a member of the spectacular Brazilian Murillo on the Metropolis Floor, they now boast one of many tightest backlines.
“Forest will do effectively to maintain maintain of Murillo long run. He is an unbelievable younger participant,” stated Morgan, who’s now a nationwide scout at Forest, having performed over 400 video games for the Reds earlier than switching to Leicester.
“Milenkovic has come alongside and simply complemented him. Positioning between each gamers is nice and I believe that is key to a profitable defence.”
Morgan associated it to the partnership he and Robert Huth had at Leicester, including: “That understanding between me and Huthy, we may play with our eyes closed and I knew precisely the place he was going to be. That is the identical for Murillo and Milenkovic.”
The defensive unit, together with Sels, Ola Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Morato and Neco Williams has value Forest simply over £50m.
Together with Liverpool, Forest have conceded simply 19 objectives in 20 video games – solely Arsenal have shipped much less.
“The championship is just not over but and we need to be sure that the variety of clear sheets solely continues to go up,” says Morato, underlining the dedication inside the squad, who’ve made probably the most clearances within the league – 563 – this season.
Sels has confronted 259 photographs, stage with Crystal Palace’s Dean Henderson, and solely behind Brentford’s Mark Flekken with 342 and Mads Hermansen of Leicester who has confronted 287.
Not all of these photographs went heading in the right direction, however Sels has been saved busy sufficient and has excelled. He has a save share of 75.3%, which is the very best of any goalkeeper who has performed greater than 500 minutes within the Premier League.
The anticipated objectives in opposition to Forest this season – 21.7 – can also be solely overwhelmed by Liverpool and Arsenal.
Sels’ influence has been prompt. Since 1 February, Forest have conceded 46 objectives within the Premier League, with solely Arsenal, Manchester Metropolis and Liverpool bettering them.
Can they actually beat leaders Liverpool?
Whereas the defence has impressed, Wooden has grabbed the vast majority of the headlines.
The New Zealand worldwide has 12 objectives in all competitors, together with the second in final Monday’s 3-0 win at Wolves.
The victory at Molineux may have been scripted beforehand. A breakaway objective from Gibbs-White and a tap-in by Wooden from Hudson-Odoi’s cross had them 2-0 forward at half-time.
Whether or not the headline writers will be capable to predict the result of Tuesday’s match is debatable.
Forest’s win at Anfield in September, due to Hudson-Odoi’s objective, got here with simply 30% possession and so they made lower than half the quantity of passes [273 to Liverpool’s 604] of their hosts.
Forest made three defensive blocks from goal-bound photographs and 30 clearances, whereas Sels made 5 saves.
Nuno used 5 central midfielders to stifle the Reds and he’s prone to fight Slot’s aspect in an identical means once more. Forest use a mid-block, which permits them to win the ball again and produce area for his or her wingers which in any other case wouldn’t be there if possession got here larger up.
In a congested midfield, which may occur on Tuesday, there could be little area for Liverpool to use.
Per recreation this season, Forest rank final in possession and nineteenth for final-third pressures and sequences of greater than 10 passes.
But they’re the kings of the clearances and have a median of 4.1 defenders behind the ball for each shot confronted, one other league greatest.
Liverpool’s xG of 44.5 is near double Forest’s and so they have scored 35 of their 85 large possibilities. Their anticipated objectives in opposition to of 17.9 can also be the perfect this season within the division.
The group Slot inherited from Jurgen Klopp are used to video games in opposition to potential title rivals. This Forest aspect are in new territory.
The membership haven’t featured in European competitors since 1995-96 throughout Frank Clark’s reign, whereas earlier this month marked the – their springboard to fondly remembered glory days at residence and on the continent.
Are the brand new technology on this explicit title race?
“I believe you can not say no, simply due to the place they’re in, the factors they’ve and their kind,” stated Morgan.
“It is a tall order however something may occur in soccer.”